Projections


Population projections are forecasts of population in future time periods. The Kentucky State Data Center is responsible for developing population projections for Kentucky, the Area Development Districts, and all 120 counties.

The household population and the group quarters population age 65 and above were projected using the cohort-component model.  County-specific assumptions about future mortality, fertility, and migration were derived from the latest demographic patterns and trends from the 2000-2010 decade.  The group quarters population under age 65 was projected to remain constant at their 2010 Census counts.   Projections of the group quarters population above age 65 were based on their share of the 2010 Census total population.  Forecasts of the number of households and household size were derived from the cohort-headship method.

Released in December 2011, these population projections forecast population change through 2050 in 5-year intervals for Kentucky, Area Development Districts, and Counties.

Total Populationexcel

Total Population by Sex and Ageexcel

Population in Householdsexcel

Population in Households by Sex and Ageexcel

Components of Population Changeexcel

Number of Households and Household Sizeexcel

Population Pyramids excel